tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8345279.post6613746429221769076..comments2023-10-28T08:33:48.117-05:00Comments on Capital Ideas: The true risk of stocks for the long run (part 1)Tedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16875279248672499352noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8345279.post-24800640201905820432023-03-10T15:52:47.712-06:002023-03-10T15:52:47.712-06:00We are project funder as well as financial lender....We are project funder as well as financial lender. We have BG/SBLC specifically for BUY/LEASE at a leasing price of 4%+2% of face value Issuance by HSBC London and many other 25 top AA rated Bank in Europe, Middle East or USA. We also secure funding. Also We are into the provision of short term and long term business/personal loans for both small and large scale business funds.<br /><br />LEASING FEE = 4%+2%<br /><br />BUYING FEE = 32%+2%<br /><br />Intermediaries/Consultants/Brokers are welcome to bring their clients and are 100% protected. In complete confidence, we will work together for the benefits of all parties involved.<br /><br />We conduct DD to verify source, Lessee or buyer. Our company works to the highest ethical professional standards. We operate through a network of business and professional financial associates located in several countries of the world, including to 5-100 banks.<br /><br />Nigel Cawthorne<br />Email: cawthorne.nigel14@gmail.com<br />Tel/WhatsApp: +447589658928Nigel Cawthornehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11337416257916702246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8345279.post-30878093359941329932022-04-18T04:28:24.041-05:002022-04-18T04:28:24.041-05:00FINANCIAL AGENT LIMITED provides a full financial ...FINANCIAL AGENT LIMITED provides a full financial planning service to both the commercial and domestic markets. At IQ FINANCE PLC we believe that financial planning is about two things: creating wealth and protecting wealth. These two objectives are at the heart of everything we do. And, as a member of FINANCIAL AGENT LIMITED Services, we give you a small-company service but with a large-company set up – the best of both worlds. <br />You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs as well as in signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges and any other turnkey project(s) etc. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable. <br />Leasing Price : 6%+2%<br />Buying Price: 38%+2%<br /><br />Contact us for more details on our terms and procedure of transaction. <br /><br />NAME :Jason Edward<br />EMAIL :financialagentltd@gmail.com<br />SKYPE :financialagentltd@gmail.comJason Edwardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17325821376555077637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8345279.post-37073321788350524822021-11-21T07:21:26.322-06:002021-11-21T07:21:26.322-06:00
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Attention!!!
Do you have a bad credit?
Do you ne...<br />Attention!!!<br /><br />Do you have a bad credit?<br />Do you need money to pay bills?<br />Do you need to start up a new business?<br />Do you have unfinished project at hand due to bad financing?<br />Do you need money to invest in some area of specialization which will profit you? and you don’t know what to do.<br /><br />we render all kinds of loan in good services, contact us via email: inforamzanloan@gmail.comKavita Pheerangeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17986839478566226348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8345279.post-77502277533397306602009-02-27T08:55:00.000-06:002009-02-27T08:55:00.000-06:00I see where I went wrong. The most likely outcome...I see where I went wrong. The most likely outcome is zero by far, but the expected value is $117.<BR/><BR/>In my opinion, questioning risk statistically is a bit strange because the definition of risk in finance is related to the movement of prices. It's something you measure.<BR/><BR/>It's like saying "The true length of your finger is not what you measured with a ruler." Umm. Yes it is :)<BR/><BR/>The definition of risk for common people might be different than the simple financial definition. Catastrophic loss might cost far more than just the loss on the security for example.<BR/><BR/>As well, stocks do not really behave normally. Prices over time have way too many "statistically unlikely" extreme events.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00302448063008389463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8345279.post-71435446003396637522009-02-27T08:20:00.000-06:002009-02-27T08:20:00.000-06:00You're correct in that the most likely (mode) outc...You're correct in that the most likely (mode) outcome over 4 flips is $100, but to compute the expected (mean) terminal value, you have to take the ending values multiplied by the probability of each scenario. That's why the expectation is $117, not $100. Those probabilities come from Excel's BINOMDIST function.<BR/><BR/>As for the exact numbers, this is a simplified model to make a point - I don't think the stock market actually returns +33% or -25% with a 0.5 probability each year.<BR/><BR/>I also don't expect that the entire economy is going to collapse and all firms are going to go bankrupt. But a few years of negative returns is certainly possible, and I wanted to illustrate the effect this would have on a portfolio.Tedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16875279248672499352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8345279.post-58945822520040548052009-02-26T09:22:00.000-06:002009-02-26T09:22:00.000-06:00Interesting post, but wrong :)The numbers you pick...Interesting post, but wrong :)<BR/><BR/>The numbers you picked are equal, in the sense that the most likely outcome is H=T so the 33% and -25% returns all cancel each other out. In any string of flips you expect the outcome to be break-even, not $117. Do the simulation and you'll see this is the case. There is something wrong with the 4% expectation you mention.<BR/><BR/>Of course in that case we expect equal chances of being above and below the break-even. Your modeled investment is terrible in the sense that you'll get your breakeven a lot more easily by doing nothing. It's a lot more risky, so it's good that you conclude it to be so!<BR/><BR/>Also, you consider the spread out to the tails as the "risk". In reality businesses can all go bankrupt and the value fall to zero so the downside is a lot worse than you contemplate. But businesses or portfolios don't go bankrupt that often.<BR/><BR/>Your car could blow up, but you don't consider that a real probability. If you did you would say "If I drive my car I could experience every outcome from a fatal crash to arriving safetly, with the likely expectation to be something worse than arriving safely." But you still drive.<BR/><BR/>Regarding risk premium: Risk premium is NOT something that you "get" from risky investments. Risky investments with bad returns are just bad. You should be thinking that you are demanding a risk premium, not accepting it. If you are offered a risky investment then think "I'm going to need another 10% before I go for this over something safer."<BR/><BR/>I like your post though, and the illustrations and analysis.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00302448063008389463noreply@blogger.com